Primetime Ratings, Thursday, 4/24/14
With its usual line-up back, CBS won Thursday in all measures.
Despite the win, 'The Big Bang Theory' dropped two tenths to a season low of 4.5. To be fair, most shows would kill for that number on their best day. 'The Millers' dipped a tenth to a 2.4. Conversely, lead-out 'Two and a Half Men' rose a tenth to a 2.5.
The series premiere of 'Bad Teacher' earned a decent, if not great 2.1. That tops the last few episodes of 'The Crazy Ones,' but is also just above what the quickly canceled 'We Are Men' debuted to back in the Fall. 'Elementary' matched its last new episode's 1.6.
FOX's 'Hell's Kitchen' matched last week's 1.7. 'American Idol' dipped a tenth, returning to its previous all-time low of 1.8. 'Surviving Jack' matched last week's series low of 1.0, and has quickly sealed its fate after a promising first two weeks.
Over on ABC, 'Grey's Anatomy' tumbled down three tenths to a 2.3, its previous series low. The series premiere of critically maligned new drama 'Black Box' earned a worrying 1.5. While 1.5 isn't quite an instant death sentence for a 10 p.m. show, it's hardly a good starting point.
The double length season finale of 'Parks & Recreation' bumped up a tenth to a 1.0 for NBC. An 'SNL' digital shorts special also posted a 1.0. The CW finally broke the 0.7 barrier again, with 'The Vampire Diaries' bumping up a tenth to a 0.8, and 'Reign' rising a smidge to a 0.5.
Oh, one more thing. With us being less than a month out from the network upfronts, I'm going to be changing most of my "likely" renewals or cancellations to "guaranteed" ones soon. To that end, one FOX show has been downgraded below.
Key: Broadcast Network - Show Name - 18-49 Rating - 18-49 Share - Total Viewers In Millions
8PM
CBS - The Big Bang Theory (N) - 4.5 - 16 - 16.44
FOX - Hell's Kitchen (N) - 1.7 - 6 - 4.92
NBC - Parks & Recreation (Season Finale) - 1.0 - 3 - 2.71
CW - The Vampire Diaries (N) - 0.8 - 3 - 1.81
ABC - Jimmy Kimmel Live (R) - 0.6 - 2 - 2.79
8:30PM
CBS - The Millers (N) - 2.4 - 8 - 9.96
9PM
CBS - Two and a Half Men (N) - 2.5 - 8 - 9.35
ABC - Grey's Anatomy (N) - 2.3 - 7 - 7.99
FOX - American Idol (N) - 1.8 - 5 - 7.68
NBC - Saturday Night Live: Best of Digital Shorts (N) - 1.0 - 3 - 2.47
CW - Reign (N) - 0.5 - 1 - 1.35
9:30PM
CBS - Bad Teacher (Series Premiere) - 2.1 - 6 - 7.80
FOX - Surviving Jack (N) - 1.0 - 3 - 3.89
10PM
CBS - Elementary (N) - 1.6 - 5 - 8.13
ABC - Black Box (Series Premiere) - 1.5 - 4 - 6.87
Source: Nielsen Media Research
PRIMETIME PROGNOSTICATION
The five main factors I consider when making a prediction are thus:
1. Does the show win its timeslot, and how often? (CW shows are exempt from this criteria.)
2. How do the show's ratings compare to similar programs on the same network? (Self explanatory.)
3. How long has the show been on the air? (Veteran series are always more likely to get renewed.)
4. Does the show have any high-profile leads? (Never discount star power.)
5. How much does the show cost to make? (Approximately, exact TV budgets are hard to come by.)
Newly updated predictions are in bold.
Once Upon a Time in Wonderland - Guaranteed Cancellation Canceled 3/28/14 *Correct Prediction
Grey's Anatomy - Guaranteed Renewal
Scandal - Guaranteed Renewal
Black Box - Too Soon to Tell
The Big Bang Theory - Guaranteed Renewal Renewed 3/12/14 *Correct Prediction
The Millers - Guaranteed Renewal Renewed 3/13/14 *Correct Prediction
Two and a Half Men - Likely Renewal Renewed 3/13/14 *Correct Prediction
The Crazy Ones - Guaranteed Cancellation
Bad Teacher - Too Soon To Tell
Elementary - Likely Renewal Renewed 3/13/14 *Correct Prediction
The Vampire Diaries - Already Renewed
Reign - Already Renewed
Surviving Jack - Guaranteed Cancellation
Community - Guaranteed Renewal
Parks and Recreation - Guaranteed Renewal Renewed 3/19/14 *Correct Prediction
Parenthood - Guaranteed Renewal
Prediction Stats
Shows correctly predicted - 22
ABC - Mind Games (C), Once Upon a Time in Wonderland (C)
CBS - 2 Broke Girls (R), The Big Bang Theory (R), Blue Bloods (R), Criminal Minds (R), CSI (R) Elementary (R), The Good Wife (R), Hawaii Five-0 (R), The Millers (R), NCIS (R) NCIS: Los Angeles (R), Person of Interest (R), Two and a Half Men (R)
FOX - Brooklyn Nine-Nine (R), New Girl (R), Raising Hope (C)
NBC - Chicago Fire (R), Chicago P.D. (R), Grimm (R), Parks and Recreation (R)
Shows incorrectly predicted - 3 - The Following (R), The Mindy Project (R), Mom (R)
Current accuracy rate: 88%
Shows that were renewed or canceled prior to 'Primetime Prognostication's debut - 21
ABC - The Assets (C), Back in the Game (C), Killer Women (C), Lucky 7 (C)
CBS - Unforgettable (R), We Are Men (C)
CW - Arrow (R), The Originals (R), Reign (R), Supernatural (R), The Vampire Diaries (R)
FOX - American Dad (C by FOX, R by TBS), Bob's Burgers (R), Bones (R), Glee (R), Sleepy Hollow (R), The Simpsons (R)
NBC - The Blacklist (R), Ironside (C), The Michael J. Fox Show (C), Sean Saves the World (C), Welcome to the Family (C)
TheSovereign
I'm a little surprised that Fox renewed that failed abortion called Bob's Burgers... again. That show is terrible. The writing sucks, the animation is abomidable and it's just not funny. Of course, that should come as no surprise, FOX makes all sorts of bad decisions with programming (*cough FIREFLY cough*). Community, on the other hand, as much as I enjoy the show, I can't see it surviving a 6th season after how mediocre and hit & miss season 5 was.
msd85
Reign is renewed. The C next to it in the prediction stats was just a typo on my part. The error has been fixed, and kudos for spotting it.
@Anonymous #2 - "Check again, The Mindy Project was renewed on Mar 08, 2014. Mom was renewed on Mar 13, 2014." I'm not sure I understand what you mean. I know they were renewed, that's why they have Rs next to their names in the prediction stats. They're just separated from the other shows because I got my predictions for them wrong. Hope that clears things up.
@Baillie. People don't watch intelligent tv, they want that cookie cutter laugh track sitcom. It's mostly older people too. Also not all TV's have the nielsen box or whatever you call it, there's a lot going on behind the ratings. Community is clearly one of the most popular tv shows out there, but it gets shit in the ratings. Same with parks, Scrubs was like that for a long time too. So was Chuck, so were many other shows, kinda crazy they were all on NBC. Oh 30 Rock got shit ratings too, even the last few seasons of The Office. There's probably more too lol
That's a good idea Lockjaw. I'll do that from now on.
I thought "Black Box" would have made a pretty good movie, but this could rapidly become a one note drama.
Also it would be nice if in your Prediction Stats if you could include an indicator of the shows status (i.e. (R)=Renewed, (C)=Cancelled) for those of us with just not enough time to follow all these goings on or simply we who have short attention spans.
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