Primetime Ratings, Sunday, 3/23/14

CBS won Sunday night in all measures.

An NCAA March Madness overrun did well, earning a very healthy 4.0 rating, while delaying the start of CBS primetime by about 40 minutes. With that great lead-in, '60 Minutes' shot up three tenths to a 2.0. 'The Amazing Race' followed that up by matching last week's 1.8. A much buzzed about episode of 'The Good Wife' rose one tenth to a 1.4. Conspicuously not renewed drama 'The Mentalist' matched last week's underwhelming 1.3, and seems more and more likely to meet the ax.

'America's Funniest Home Videos' started off ABC's night by dipping one tenth to a 1.4. The downward trend continued, with 'Once Upon a Time' falling three tenths to a still pretty good 2.1. After two highly rated weeks, new drama 'Resurrection' is finally heading down to earth, plunging six tenths to a 2.5. The show is not in danger yet, as 2.5 is still well above ABC's scripted average. Still, if 'Resurrection' falls another half point next week, its prospects will start to become considerably less rosy.

'Revenge' dipped two tenths to a 1.5 to end things, staying within its recent range. 'Bob's Burgers' began a mixed night for FOX by rising a tenth to a 1.2. 'American Dad' came in flat with last week's 1.4. 'The Simpsons' matched last week's 1.9. 'Family Guy' dropped a tenth to a 2.2. Week three of 'Cosmos' shed three tenths, posting a 1.7. The series premiere of the Nate Berkus-hosted NBC reality competition program 'American Dream Builders' opened soft, scoring a disappointing 0.9.

Finally, freshman drama duo 'Believe' and and 'Crisis' are beginning to look like two more failures for the ol' Peacock. The Alfonso Cuaron produced 'Believe' failed to recover from week two's disastrous point and two tenths drop, decreasing three more tenths to a 1.2. A veteran comedy like 'Community' or 'Parks & Recreation' can squeak out a renewal on that, but the same likely won't be said for a big budget fantasy series. 'Crisis' did only a fraction better, dropping three tenths to a 1.3. That said, I'll give the latter show until week three before downgrading its prediction.

Key: Broadcast Network - Show Name - 18-49 Rating - 18-49 Share - Total Viewers In Millions

7PM

CBS - NCAA March Madness - 4.0 - 13 - 11.62

ABC - America's Funniest Home Videos (N) - 1.4 - 4 - 6.87

FOX - Bob's Burgers (N) - 1.2 - 4 - 2.45

NBC - The Voice (R) - 0.8 - 2 - 3.33

7:30PM

CBS - 60 Minutes (N) - 2.0 - 6 - 11.31

FOX - American Dad (N) - 1.4 - 5 - 2.70

8PM

ABC - Once Upon a Time (N) - 2.1 - 6 - 6.91

FOX - The Simpsons (N) - 1.9 - 5 - 3.98

NBC - American Dream Builders (Series Premiere) - 0.9 - 2 - 3.60

8:30PM

FOX - Family Guy (N) - 2.2 - 6 - 4.38

CBS - The Amazing Race (N) - 1.8 - 5 - 8.70

9PM

ABC - Resurrection (N) - 2.5 - 6 - 9.51

FOX - Cosmos: A Spacetime Odyssey (N) - 1.7 - 4 - 4.25

NBC - Believe (N) - 1.2 - 3 - 5.13

9:30PM

CBS - The Good Wife (N) - 1.4 - 4 - 9.12

10PM

ABC - Revenge (N) - 1.5 - 5 - 5.66

NBC - Crisis (N) - 1.3 - 3 - 5.14

10:30PM

CBS - The Mentalist (N) - 1.3 - 3 - 8.02

Source: Nielsen Media Research

PRIMETIME PROGNOSTICATION

The five main factors I consider when making a prediction are thus:

1. Does the show win its timeslot, and how often? (CW shows are exempt from this criteria.)

2. How do the show's ratings compare to similar programs on the same network? (Self explanatory.)

3. How long has the show been on the air? (Veteran series are always more likely to get renewed.)

4. Does the show have any high-profile leads? (Never discount star power.)

5. How much does the show cost to make? (Approximately, exact TV budgets are hard to come by.)

Newly updated predictions are in bold.

Once Upon a Time - Guaranteed Renewal

Resurrection - Guaranteed Renewal

Revenge - Guaranteed Renewal

The Good Wife - Likely Renewal Renewed 3/13/14 *Correct Prediction

The Mentalist - Likely Cancellation

No Scripted Programming Available

The Simpsons - Already Renewed

Bob's Burgers - Already Renewed

Family Guy - Guaranteed Renewal

American Dad - Already Renewed (by TBS)

Believe - Likely Cancellation

Crisis - Too Soon to Tell

Prediction Stats

Shows correctly predicted (so far) - 20
CBS - 2 Broke Girls, The Big Bang Theory, Blue Bloods, Criminal Minds, CSI, Elementary, The Good Wife, Hawaii Five-0, The Millers, NCIS, NCIS: Los Angeles, Person of Interest, Two and a Half Men
FOX - Brooklyn Nine-Nine, New Girl, Raising Hope
NBC - Chicago Fire, Chicago P.D., Grimm, Parks and Recreation

Shows incorrectly predicted (so far) - 3 - The Following, The Mindy Project, Mom

Current accuracy rate: 87%