Primetime Ratings, Tuesday, 3/11/14

NBC won the 18-49 demo race, while a night of CBS reruns drew the most total viewers.

'The Voice' began the night by plummeting six tenths to a 3.5, although it still (predictably) prevailed in all measures. 'About A Boy' fell half a point in week three, but the 2.0 it earned is still much, much better than most NBC comedies. 'Growing Up Fisher' dropped two tenths to a 1.7, but is in no real danger as of yet. 'Chicago Fire' matched last week's 1.9.

'Marvel's Agents of S.H.I.E.L.D.' recovered decently from last week's series low, rising three tenths to a 2.1. 'The Goldbergs' matched last week's okay enough 1.5. 'Trophy Wife' rose to a 0.9, but is still likely a goner. 'Mind Games' rose two tenths in week three, which sounds promising, until you remember that it only earned a 0.6 last week. It remains another surefire candidate for the ax.

Tuesday was a night of series lows for FOX, with 'Glee' dropping to its old series low of 0.9 to start things off. Recently renewed comedy 'New Girl' followed that by dropping two tenths to its previous series low of 1.3. Fellow renewed comedy 'Brooklyn Nine-Nine' did the same, earning a low of 1.2. Finally, 'The Originals' matched last week's 0.8 for The CW.

FOX also renewed 'The Mindy Project' last week, which surprised me greatly, considering its season average to date is a mere 1.4. For comparison's sake, 'New Girl's average is a 2.6, while 'Brooklyn's average is a 1.8. Even 'Dads' did better than 'Mindy.'

While I never made a formal prediction for Mindy (I was waiting for the show to return from hiatus in April), if I had, it would definitely have been a likely cancellation. In the spirit of fairness, I'm going to count that against myself, as an incorrect prediction. That means I've gotten three shows right so far, and two shows wrong. Well, can't win 'em all.

Key: Broadcast Network - Show Name - 18-49 Rating - 18-49 Share - Total Viewers In Millions

8PM

NBC - The Voice (N) - 3.5 - 12 - 13.51

ABC - Marvel's Agents of S.H.I.E.L.D. (N) - 2.1 - 7 - 5.99

CBS - NCIS (R) - 1.3 - 4 - 10.90

FOX - Glee (N) - 0.9 - 3 - 2.30

CW - The Originals (N) - 0.8 - 3 - 1.73

9PM

NBC - About A Boy (N) - 2.0 - 6 - 7.48

ABC - The Goldbergs (N) - 1.5 - 5 - 4.41

CBS - NCIS: Los Angeles (R) - 1.4 - 4 - 9.73

FOX - New Girl (N) - 1.3 - 4 - 2.48

CW - Supernatural (R) - 0.5 - 1 - 1.08

9:30PM

NBC - Growing Up Fisher (N) - 1.7 - 5 - 6.33

FOX - Brooklyn Nine-Nine (N) - 1.2 - 3 - 2.49

ABC - Trophy Wife (N) - 0.9 - 3 - 2.99

10PM

NBC - Chicago Fire (N) - 1.9 - 6 - 7.21

CBS - Person of Interest (R) - 1.1 - 3 - 7.64

ABC - Mind Games (N) - 0.8 - 3 - 2.68

Source: Nielsen Media Research

PRIMETIME PROGNOSTICATION

The five main factors I consider when making a prediction are thus:

1. Does the show win its timeslot, and how often? (CW shows are exempt from this criteria.)

2. How do the show's ratings compare to similar programs on the same network? (Self explanatory.)

3. How long has the show been on the air? (Veteran series are always more likely to get renewed.)

4. Does the show have any high-profile leads? (Never discount star power.)

5. How much does the show cost to make? (Approximately, exact TV budgets are hard to come by.)

Newly updated predictions are in bold.

Marvel's Agents of S.H.I.E.L.D. - Guaranteed Renewal

The Goldbergs - Likely Renewal

Trophy Wife - Guaranteed Cancellation

Mind Games - Guaranteed Cancellation

NCIS - Guaranteed Renewal

NCIS: Los Angeles - Guaranteed Renewal

Person of Interest - Guaranteed Renewal

The Originals - Already Renewed

Supernatural - Already Renewed

Glee - Already Renewed

New Girl - Guaranteed Renewal Renewed 3/7/14 *Correct Prediction

Brookyln Nine-Nine - Likely Renewal Renewed 3/7/14 *Correct Prediction

The Mindy Project - Likely Cancellation Renewed 3/7/14 *Incorrect Prediction

About A Boy - Likely Renewal

Growing Up Fisher - Likely Renewal

Chicago Fire - Guaranteed Renewal