Primetime Ratings, Monday, 5/12/14

 

 

NBC won the 18-49 demo race, while ABC drew in the most total viewers.

'The Voice' once again matched last week's all-time Monday low of 3.0, and has now been camped out at that number for four straight weeks. In a surprising development, the season finale of 'The Blacklist' actually dipped a tenth to a 2.6, although it still topped the night among scripted series.

'Dancing with the Stars' recovered a good amount from last week's massive seven tenths drop, rising four tenths to a 2.3. The much discussed season finale of 'Castle' rocketed up a half a point to a 2.1, coming in dead even with last year's denouement.

'Bones' bumped up two tenths to a 1.7. '24: Live Another Day' plunged down a whopping six tenths to a 2.0 in week two. That's a higher than average drop for a serial drama, especially one with this level of hype. Still, I'm pegging it as a likely renewal for now. Before someone points it out, I'm aware 'LAD' is a one-off "event series", but FOX has said it is open to further Jack Bauer adventures.

The now canceled CBS sitcom 'Friends with Better Lives' matched last week's series low of 1.6. On the positive side, 'Mike & Molly' shot up three tenths to a 2.0. Moving on to The CW, the series finale of 'Star-Crossed' stayed flat with its eternal 0.3. 'Star-Crossed,' we hardly knew ye.

Key: Broadcast Network - Show Name - 18-49 Rating - 18-49 Share - Total Viewers In Millions

8PM

NBC - The Voice (N) - 3.0 - 9 - 11.12

ABC - Dancing with the Stars (N) - 2.3 - 7 - 14.36

FOX - Bones (N) - 1.7 - 5 - 6.38

CBS - 2 Broke Girls (R) - 1.3 - 4 - 4.95

CW - Star-Crossed (Series Finale) - 0.3 - 1 - 0.83

8:30PM

CBS - Friends with Better Lives (N) - 1.6 - 5 - 4.81

9PM

CBS - Mike & Molly (N) - 2.0 - 6 - 6.95

FOX - 24: Live Another Day (N) - 2.0 - 6 - 6.48

CW - The Originals (R) - 0.2 - 1 - 0.57

9:30PM

CBS - Two and a Half Men (R) - 1.3 - 4 - 4.89

10PM

NBC - The Blacklist (Season Finale) - 2.6 - 7 - 10.44

ABC - Castle (Season Finale) - 2.1 - 6 - 10.59

CBS - NCIS (R) - 0.9 - 3 - 4.63

Source: Nielsen Media Research

PRIMETIME PROGNOSTICATION

Brace yourself faithful readers, as Primetime Prognostication is about to do some house cleaning. With cancellation/renewal decisions for every scripted broadcast network show now in, every show that has already aired all its episodes for this season is being removed from its network's respective section, to make room for soon to premiere summer series.

As further shows end their seasons, they too will be removed from their corresponding sections. I've also cleaned up and updated my final prediction stats chart for the 2013-2014 TV season, which can be viewed at the bottom. That will stay put until the end of May. I will continue to make predictions for all scripted summer programs, and start the whole thing over in the fall.

The five main factors I consider when making a prediction are thus:

1. Does the show win its timeslot, and how often? (CW shows are exempt from this criteria.)

2. How do the show's ratings compare to similar programs on the same network? (Self explanatory.)

3. How long has the show been on the air? (Veteran series are always more likely to get renewed.)

4. Does the show have any high-profile leads? (Never discount star power.)

5. How much does the show cost to make? (Approximately, exact TV budgets are hard to come by.)

Castle - Renewed (Correctly Predicted) Season Finale: 5/12/14

Friends with Better Lives - Canceled (Correctly Predicted) Series Finale: 6/30/14

Mike & Molly - Renewed (Correctly Predicted) Season Finale: 5/19/14

Star-Crossed - Canceled (Correctly Predicted) Series Finale: 5/12/14

Beauty and the Beast - Renewed (Incorrectly Predicted) Season Finale: 7/7/14

Bones - Renewed (No Prediction Made) Season Finale: 5/19/14

24: Live Another Day - Renewal Predicted

The Blacklist - Renewed (No Prediction Made) Season Finale 5/12/14

Final 2013-2014 Season Prediction Stats

ABC - Correct: 17, Incorrect: 2, Ineligible: 5

Renewals

Correct

Castle, The Goldbergs, Grey's Anatomy, Last Man Standing, Marvel's Agents of S.H.I.E.L.D.
The Middle, Modern Family, Once Upon a Time, Resurrection, Revenge, Scandal

Incorrect

Nashville

Cancellations

Correct

Mind Games, Mixology, The Neighbors, OUaT in Wonderland, Super Fun Night, Trophy Wife

Incorrect

Suburgatory

Ineligible - Decided Prior to Primetime Prognostication's Debut

The Assets, Back in the Game, Betrayal, Killer Women, Lucky 7

CBS - Correct: 18, Incorrect: 2, Ineligible: 2

Renewals

Correct

2 Broke Girls, The Big Bang Theory, Blue Bloods, Criminal Minds, CSI, Elementary, The Good Wife
Hawaii Five-0, The Millers, NCIS, NCIS: Los Angeles, Person of Interest, Two and a Half Men

Incorrect

The Mentalist, Mom

Ineligible - Decided Prior to Primetime Prognostication's Debut

Unforgettable

Cancellations

Correct

Bad Teacher, The Crazy Ones, Friends with Better Lives, Hostages, Intelligence

Ineligible - Decided Prior to Primetime Prognostication's Debut

We Are Men

CW - Correct: 5, Incorrect: 1, Ineligible: 5

Renewals

Correct

The 100, Hart of Dixie

Incorrect

Beauty and the Beast

Ineligible - Decided Prior to Primetime Prognostication's Debut

Arrow, The Originals, Reign, Supernatural, The Vampire Diaries

Cancellations

Correct

The Carrie Diaries, Star-Crossed, The Tomorrow People

FOX - Correct: 8, Incorrect: 2, Ineligible: 7

Renewals

Correct

Brooklyn Nine-Nine, New Girl

Incorrect

The Following, The Mindy Project

Ineligible - Decided Prior to Primetime Prognostication's Debut

Bob's Burgers, Bones, Family Guy, Glee, Sleepy Hollow, The Simpsons

Cancellations

Correct

Almost Human, Dads, Enlisted, Raising Hope, Rake, Surviving Jack

Ineligible - Decided Prior to Primetime Prognostication's Debut

American Dad (Moving to TBS)

NBC - Correct: 11, Incorrect: 2, Ineligible: 5

Renewals

Correct

About a Boy, Chicago Fire, Chicago P.D., Grimm, Hannibal
Law & Order: SVU, Parenthood, Parks and Recreation

Ineligible - Decided Prior to Primetime Prognostication's Debut

The Blacklist

Cancellations

Correct

Believe, Crisis, Dracula, Revolution

Incorrect

Community, Growing Up Fisher

Ineligible - Decided Prior to Primetime Prognostication's Debut

Ironside, The Michael J. Fox Show, Sean Saves the World, Welcome to the Family

Overall Stats - Correct: 60, Incorrect: 9, Ineligible: 24

Final Accuracy Rate: 87%